In theory, “Money in the Bank” is one of the WWE’s B-shows – which is to say, it’s not the Royal Rumble, Wrestlemania, Summerslam or Survivor Series, and therefore it’s automatically second-tier.  But it’s a more interesting show than most, for several reasons.

First (and least important), it’s the show before “Summerslam”, and so it ought to set up major storylines to be resolved at that show.  For that reason alone, it shouldn’t be a throwaway.

Second, the Money in the Bank Ladder Match has been well protected as a gimmick since it debuted in 2005.  The idea is that a bunch of wrestlers compete in a ladder match with the winner being the first one to retrieve a briefcase suspended above the ring.  Inside that briefcase (supposedly) is a contract entitling them to a shot at their show’s version of the world title, whenever they want it.  The “whenever” bit has been taken literally, meaning that if the winner is prepared to ambush the champion, they’re pretty much guaranteed to get the title.  With the exception of Rob Van Dam in 2006, everyone has been prepared to screw the champion in this way – making it an excellent gimmick for rising heels, or wrestlers who are about to turn heel.

Thirdly, this year’s show has the benefit of a particularly strong storyline on Raw, which has got an awful lot of attention from the core fans.  Whether its appeal translates to a broader audience remains to be seen; but people are talking about it.

1.  WWE Title: John Cena v. CM Punk. This is the match in question.  CM Punk has been around for years and has held the title before, but he’s still never quite broken free of the midcard.  (When he was champion, he didn’t get to headline the shows.)  More recently, he’s been doing a cult leader role, first with the Straight Edge Society on Smackdown, and latterly with the Nexus on Raw.

The story goes like this.  Despite being a heel, Punk has won his title shot more or less fairly, by beating the champion in a non-title match and then winning a #1 contender match.  But Punk’s contract is due to expire on Sunday.  (At one point this was more or less true, though at this stage it can probably be inferred that an extension of some sort has been worked out.)  So, three weeks ago, Raw ended with Punk delivering a speech declaring his intention to leave the company and take the title with him, perhaps to defend on the indie circuit or in Japan.  Then he launched into a rant about the state of the company, running down all sorts of things that hardcore fans regularly complain about, and generally acknowledging all the complaints that the WWE normally refuses to engage with, before his mike was cut and the show went off the air.  The next show had the company try to suspend Punk, only for John Cena, as the babyface champion, to insist that the match should go ahead – after all, he had won the title shot legitimately, and what’s the point of being champion if you’re protected from legitimate challengers?

So now we have an odd storyline where Punk is holding the company to ransom, still threatening to win the title and leave the company with it, and also taking on a new “speaking truth to power” role where he says what an awful lot of the audience is thinking.  There is, for example, a notional stipulation here that Cena will be fired if Punk leaves with the title.  Nobody takes this seriously, since a similar stipulation in the autumn went nowhere – what’s more surprising is that Punk drew attention to that fact.

This has got a lot of people talking. It’s something new.  Punk’s very good in this role; aside from being an excellent talker, he’s also got the right look and back story to play the outsider convincingly.  Technically he’s still a heel, but he’s being cheered, and there’s no doubt that’s intended.  And of course by virtue of the fact that Punk is voicing these opinions, the company itself is demonstrating that it’s more aware of its critics than it lets on.  In many ways I suspect that’s the bit that really hooked people.

The other part of the storyline – Punk threatening to leave with the title – is actually a rehash of a storyline he did several years ago when he left acclaimed indie Ring of Honor for the WWE.  At that stage, Punk was a holier-than-thou heel who had won the RoH title and was threatening to take it to the big leagues.  The storyline involved a sequence of challengers desperately trying to get the belt off him before it was too late.  It’s a good idea, especially because it makes the title seem important to the characters.

How do they end this?  The simple solution is for Cena to just win, but that’s such a massive anticlimax for a major storyline that I can’t imagine them doing it.  Another, more likely option is that Punk wins but gets ambushed by one of the Money in the Bank winners before he can get out of there.  That might lead to Punk returning with some sort of outsider faction in a few weeks’ time, to claim his automatic rematch.  This could definitely work.

Perhaps the most interesting, but least probable, approach is that Punk actually makes good on his promise to leave the company as champion.  This might work if the WWE has struck a deal with another promotion – such as Ring of Honor, currently between TV networks – to allow Punk to show up as champion on their show.  Since Punk has been namechecking Ring of Honor on Raw, I wouldn’t rule this out.  There’s a precedent; the WWE had a working relationship with ECW back when it was the largest indie promotion, and they could do something similar with RoH.  On the other hand, this would leave them with another “Cena fired” stipulation that they’d be terrified of following through with.  It’s unlikely they’ll go in this direction, but you never know.  Can’t rule it out.

They’ve done a good job with this storyline so far, so there’s reason to be optimistic that they’ll get it right.  And the match should be decent as well; Punk/Cena is a combination that hasn’t been done to death.  I’m looking forward to this.

2.  World Heavyweight Title: Randy Orton v. Christian. Over on Smackdown, this feud is in its third month, and they’re still doing regular singles matches.  In case you’ve forgotten, Christian won the title, lost it to Orton after less than a week, and then went nuts leading to a heel turn.  Now Christian’s trying to win the title back.  Since Christian lost last month on a dubious call, this match has a rather odd stipulation that the title can change hands if Orton is disqualified or “if the referee makes a bad call”, whatever that means.  It’s particularly unclear who determines whether the referee has made an error.  At any rate, my guess would be that they’re going for a controversial finish leading to a rematch at Summerslam in order to blow off the feud.  I wouldn’t be surprised if they had Christian win this one on a technicality so as to avoid him losing every match in the series.  Christian and Orton have generally been having excellent matches, so this is another promising one.

3.  Raw Money in the Bank match: Rey Mysterio v. Alberto Del Rio v. Kofi Kingston v. Alex Riley v. R-Truth v. Miz v. Evan Bourne v. Jack Swagger. These matches are usually pretty great as stunt shows, and that’s the most important thing.  But what about the story?

Since the winner of this match gets a shot at Raw’s title, an obvious question is what happens if CM Punk makes good on his threat to leave and take the title with him.  They haven’t spoken much about that, which probably indicates that it’s a plot point they’re trying to hold in reserve as a surprise.  One possibility is that the winner needs to stop Punk leaving with the title, by cashing in at the end of the night if necessary.  Another is that the winner becomes the WWE’s great hope to recover the title.  (None of this really makes sense, of course – what would happen if this were real is that Punk would have to continue defending against the WWE’s chosen challengers or be stripped of the title – but for storyline purposes, let’s run with the idea that Punk can do this.)

Of this bunch… Miz won last year, and doesn’t need to repeat the gimmick.  Mysterio is so well established that there’s no point wasting the gimmick on him.  Swagger’s also won it before, though everyone’s largely forgotten about that; his Smackdown title run was an afterthought, and he’s in here simply because he’s a good wrestler to make up the numbers.  Evan Bourne is a high flyer who rarely wins matches; again, he’s here to be spectacular, and it would be a major surprise if he actually won.  Alex Riley is the Miz’s former apprentice turned babyface nemesis, and he’s here to continue his feud with Miz.

That leaves Del Rio, Kingston and Truth as plausible contenders.  Kingston, to my mind, is lacking the spark that he would need to break free of the midcard; he needs stronger midcard feuds, but he’s not a main eventer at this point.  Truth could main event, but his match with Cena last month was generally considered disappointing.  So the obvious bet is Del Rio, who’s been on the verge of becoming heel champion for quite a while now, and is really just waiting for the convenient moment.  Frankly, the strongest argument against him winning is that it’s too obvious.

4.  Smackdown Money in the Bank match: Kane v. Sin Cara v. Daniel Bryan v. Wade Barrett v. Cody Rhodes v. Heath Slater v. Justin Gabriel v. Sheamus. Not exactly a testament to the depth of the Smackdown roster, is it?

Kane is the token giant; he won last year, had an undistinguished reign as champion, and shouldn’t win again.  Sheamus is an established main eventer and former WWE champion, and in many ways the more obvious choice… but I think he’s too obvious and there are better options here, if the company is willing to take a leap of faith and give someone new a chance.  After all, the winner has a year to cash in the title shot; you can give it to somebody unexpected and then start to build them as a credible champion before they finally get around to pulling the trigger.

Even allowing for that, however, we can rule out Heath Slater and Justin Gabriel, who are in there to make up the numbers and to allow Gabriel to do some high-flying.  Slater, to the best of my knowledge, has never actually won a match in singles competition; he’s spent his entire career in tag teams or factions.  I quite like the guy, but given the way he’s been booked, he shouldn’t be in this match.  Gabriel’s in-story track record is little better, but he’s had more opportunity to look spectacular and he could well impress in this match.  He still shouldn’t win; he should be booked to look strong in order to start his career as a newly-turned babyface.

Wade Barrett was a main eventer on Raw as leader of the Nexus, though that was mainly because storyline demanded that one of the rookies from the first season of NXT had to be put in that role.  He’s arguably been pushed to the top before he was ready, and they’ve dialled him back to midcard level.  Nonetheless, he does have something; the Smackdown roster is thin enough that they should be looking to rehabilitate him; and winning here would help.

Cody Rhodes has had some success with his curious midcard gimmick in which he’s inexplicably convinced that he’s been rendered hideous by facial injuries.  In a neat touch, rather than have him wrestle in make-up, which would never work, they’ve given him a clear plastic protective mask which distorts his appearance somewhat.  If you assume he’s supposed to be crazy rather than actually scarred, it works.  It still strikes me as too much of a novelty act to transfer to the main event, but he’d be something different, and the company seems serious about pushing him.

Then there’s Sin Cara and Daniel Bryan – both, in their way, technical masters, and both not quite at home in the WWE.  Sin Cara used to be Mistico, one of the most acclaimed wrestlers in Mexico; but the Mexican style is different, most of the WWE roster don’t know how to do it, and he’s not finding it easy to convert to the American style either.  He’s a big priority for the company, and they’re pushing hard to make him a star, but it’s not quite there yet.  I think it would be too early for him to win this match, but I wouldn’t rule it out.  Bryan has long been regarded as one of the best wrestlers in America, but his anti-star nice-guy style is the polar opposite of what the WWE normally does, and the company hasn’t entirely cottoned on to the idea that this could be what makes him stand out.  I’d be astonished if he did win – I don’t think the company would have faith in him in a main event role – but with the right booking I think he could be made to work.

My guess would still be Sheamus, but the fact that several of the others are plausible winners should make this a more interesting match to watch.

5.  Divas Title: Kelly Kelly v. Brie Bella. This is Brie’s rematch after losing the title on Raw a few weeks ago.  It won’t go any longer than five minutes, it’ll be average at best, and I would hazard a guess that Kelly retains, since they seem to like her as the lead babyface in the women’s division.  There’s no real point in swapping the title back so quickly.

6.  Mark Henry v. The Big Show. Two very large men punching each other.  They’ve done a lot of work to build it up, but the fact remains that on paper it’s a terrible match and we’d best hope it’s short.  The company is currently on one of its periodic kicks to push Mark Henry as a potential main eventer; they go through this every year or so, and then realise that it’s a bad idea and forget about him for a while.  Granted that Smackdown is desperately short of top heels, I venture to say it’s not that desperate when Christian, Sheamus and even Wade Barrett and Cody Rhodes are available.  If they’re still determined to push him to the top, he should win; otherwise, Big Show should win, because he’s the babyface and it will end the feud.

Worth buying? This is not a PPV in the UK, so the question doesn’t arise here.  But yes, it’s one of the more promising shows in quite a while.  Four very promising matches, with the two duds likely to be short, plus a strong storyline.  Sounds good to me.