As always, the WWE’s first pay-per-view of 2010 is one of the big ones.  Traditionally, the biggest show of the year in always Wrestlemania in the spring – this year, March 28th.  And back in the days when there were only a handful of PPVs each year, the Royal Rumble was the start of an extended build to Wrestlemania.  It’s a simple idea: the winner of the titular battle royal becomes the number one contender for the World Title, and the title match headlines Wrestlemania.  Then you spend two months building to it.

It’s a bit more complicated now.  The brand split means that Raw and Smackdown (and ECW, as if anyone still cares) all have their own separate versions of the world title, so the winner gets to choose which champion he faces.  And there’s also a February pay-per-view to fill – ideally by selecting challengers for the other major titles.  But the basic idea remains the same.  The build to the major show starts tonight and lasts for two months.

The WWE spent most of 2009 more or less making things up as they went along, and changing their plans on a weekly basis.  Reportedly, things have now settled down a bit: the company has decided on the main matches for Wrestlemania, and they’re working back from there.  This is a good thing. 

The other key development in wrestling at the moment is a more direct challenge from TNA, the (distant) number two promotion, who are planning to move their show to Monday nights beginning in March, going head-to-head with Raw.  In its current incarnation, TNA increasingly resembles a reunion of the WCW crew who went head-to-head with the WWE – and beat them for quite some time – during the nineties.  It’s always possible that this will prompt the WWE to focus a little more on the quality of Monday Night Raw, which has been a haphazard and directionless mess of random celebrity guests and excruciating “comedy” for some time now.  That said, it’s not as though the company has too much to fear from TNA.  After all, this is the same WCW crew who beat their one good idea into the ground and ultimately killed the company from under their feet; and besides, they’re building their show around wrestlers whose heyday is now embarrassingly distant.

So.  Here’s what we have tonight.

1.  The 2010 Royal Rumble.  The Royal Rumble is an unusual PPV because the length of the eponymous match takes up a third of the show.  For those who don’t follow wrestling, here’s how it (notionally) works.  Thirty wrestlers enter.  They draw numbers at random.  Numbers 1 and 2 start the match, and everyone else enters into order at intervals of 90 seconds (or thereabouts – even the announced time varies from year to year, and it’s not as if they apply it that strictly).  Elimination occurs if you go over the top rope and both feet touch the floor.  Last guy left is the winner.  You’ll note that under these rules, it takes over 40 minutes just for everyone to enter the match, so it inevitably goes on a while. 

Obviously, this is a stupid way to pick a number one contender, since the match is heavily weighted in favour of the guys who draw later numbers.   But the staggered entries they make for a much better match.  Battle royals are usually godawful, because the ring is so full at the start of the match that there’s nowhere to move, and most guys can only kill time until they’re readily to get eliminated.  The design of the Rumble makes it possible to keep the ring quiet enough for faster-paced wrestling to occur, and to have a turnover of wrestlers.  Plus, they don’t announce the numbers in advance, and they usually don’t announce all the participants, so there’s always the “who’s next” factor and a couple of surprise appearances every year.  All these factors far outweigh the match’s logical shortcomings.

Naturally, the company doesn’t employ 30 wrestlers who could all plausibly headline the biggest show of the year, so most of the field can be eliminated as possible winners right off the bat.  We can also assume that no winner is going to waste his opportunity challenging for the bush-league ECW Title.  The WWE Title (Raw’s version of the belt) is currently held by Sheamus, a rookie recently elevated from the midcard; his obvious potential challengers are John Cena and Triple H.  Smackdown’s World Heavyweight Title is currently held by the Undertaker; Batista has been pursuing him for a while, and Shawn Michaels from Raw also wants to face him at Wrestlemania in a rematch from last year.  So those four are your obvious contenders.  But there are always other possibilities – in theory, some wild card could win and put their title shot on the line next month.  Or, of course, Undertaker or Sheamus could lose their title on tonight’s show (though it seems unlikely), in which case everything’s up in the air.

As of right now, 25 entrants have been announced.  Actually, they’d previously announced even more, but Gregory Helms has been struck off the list are getting into a fight at a gas station, or something to that effect, and comedy act Santino Marella has also mysteriously vanished from the list despite several weeks of skits on Raw promoting his (self-evidently doomed) entry into the match.  That leaves:-

• The former world champions: John Cena, Batista, Triple H, Chris Jericho, Shawn Michaels, CM Punk, The Great Khali, Kane, the Big Show.  All plausible winners except for Khali, who’s virtually immobile and is never going to headline the biggest show of the year, and Kane, whose one-day title reign in the late nineties has long since been forgotten by all but the most avid trainspotters.  Jericho and Punk are unlikely because they’re not involved in any relevant storyline, but they’re conceivable.  Triple H and Michaels are a tag team, so there’s an issue of how long they’ll last before turning on each other.
• Randy Orton’s henchmen, Ted DiBiase and Cody Rhodes.  DiBiase’s on-again-off-again babyface turn seems to be in the works, so there’s a possibility of these two turning on one another.  Neither of these guys will win, but they might get an important storyline role.
• The long-serving midcarders: Matt Hardy, Shelton Benjamin, MVP, the Miz, William Regal, Kofi Kingston, Mark Henry.  A shock win for Miz or Kingston isn’t completely inconceivable, but it’s extremely unlikely.  (Miz, in particular, is now a strong enough performer that he should be elevated to the main event as a fresh face.  But this is probably not the time.)  The others have no chance.
• Undercard wrestlers making up the numbers: Yoshi Tatsu, Chris Masters, R-Truth, Zack Ryder, Jack Swagger, Evan Bourne, Carlito

There’s also the possibility of one of the Unannounced Five being a major wrestler making a shock return to win the match.  This year, the only likely candidate is Edge, who’s due back from injury soon, and who might be able to work around his injuries in a match like this.  That said, there’s no point doing that unless they’re very confident that he’ll be fit to work a main event match at the end of March.  Edge is such a major character that I’d personaly be reluctant to waste his return on the Rumble if he isn’t going to win it, but I think there’s a fair chance they’ll do it anyway, just for the crowd reaction when his music plays.

I expect this to be fun.  If you want me to pick a winner… well, they’re obviously going for Michaels/Undertaker at Wrestlemania.  But my bet is that Triple H wins and picks the soft target of Sheamus, leaving Shawn free to pursue the Smackdown title shot in February.

2.  WWE Title: Sheamus v. Randy Orton.  This is an unusual match.  Sheamus is an Irish rookie – and yes, I know that’s not how you spell “Seamus”, but that’s wrestling for you.  He is at least genuinely Irish, which more than you can say for most people doing that gimmick.  He was busy doing the usual routine for rookie monster heels, ploughing his way through undercard babyfaces, when he was suddenly catapulted to the top of the card and given the world title.  The WWE always struggles with newly elevated champions, and once again, they’ve shyed away from building the show around him.  The effect is to treat him as a midcarder who won the belt, rather than a proper champion.  But he’s held the belt for a reasonable period (if only because of the Christmas break), and he’s been solid in the role.  He’ll be fine. 

The original plan was apparently to do a rematch with John Cena tonight, but Cena has nagging injuries, which is why he’s in the Rumble – it’s easier to work around injuries in a 30-man match when you don’t have to carry it.  So instead we’re getting Randy Orton, an established main event heel.  This is odd.  Heel/heel matches traditionally don’t draw and don’t work.  Fans don’t know how they’re supposed to react (or, if you prefer, have no reason to be invested in the result).  Occasionally the fans react oddly and start cheering the heel who’s the more entertaining performer.  This is great if you want to turn the guy, but not so good otherwise.  I wouldn’t be surprised if the crowd cheers Orton over Sheamus tonight, but you never know.  The match should certainly be interesting if nothing else.

Obviously, the result depends on whether they think Sheamus is strong enough to headline Wrestlemania.  My instinct is no, he isn’t, and so I wouldn’t be surprised if Orton won tonight – leaving the stale-but-safe Orton/Triple H as a Wrestlemania title match, and Cena/Sheamus as an undercard match.  Sheamus/Triple H is a more interesting title match because it’s newer, but something tells me the company will bottle it.

3.  World Heavyweight Title: The Undertaker v. Rey Mysterio.  If Undertaker actually loses the Smackdown title then a bunch of storylines surrounding the Royal Rumble get torpedoed.  So that seems pretty unlikely.  This is basically a time-filler, as Undertaker takes on a credible opponent who should give him a decently entertaining match, where he can win comfortably.  There’s not really anything else to be said about it.

4.  ECW Title: Christian v. Ezekiel Jackson.  The ECW Title hasn’t been defended on PPV for ages, and it’s kind of slipped under the company’s radar.  ECW is basically the show where they start out rookies who’ve just been called up from the developmental promotion in Florida, and Christian serves the thankless role of the veteran frontman for the promotion.  He’s held the title since July.  Ezekiel Jackson seems to have commended himself to the company largely through being a big guy who looks vaguely intimidating.  He’s not especially good, and Christian has his work cut out tonight if he wants to get a decent match out of him.

ECW ratings are pretty terrible, and there’s talk of revamping the show in some way, probably dispensing with the “why the hell would you want it” ECW title altogether.  There is something to be said for getting the thing off Christian, a talented wrestler, so that he can be moved over to a higher profile slot on a show with a larger audience.  There is, however, relatively little to be said for putting the belt on Jackson.  I’d leave it on Christian for now. 

5.  Women’s Title: Michelle McCool v. Mickie James.  Latest instalment in the never-ending and uncomfortably misguided feud between these two.  The basic idea is that Michelle is bullying Mickie over her weight, which might make an iota of sense if Mickie had any discernible weight issues.  In fairness, this utterly stupid storyline does seem to be drawing some heat, which is rare enough in the women’s division.  But they’ve dragged it out long enough, and it’s probably time for Mickie to finally get her win and put an end to this.  As for the match quality… well, it’s Michelle McCool, so it’ll probably be competent and not much more.

Worth buying?  This show is usually worth getting for the Royal Rumble itself, and the undercard is a bit of an afterthought.  Orton/Sheamus is interesting and could be good.  Undertaker/Mysterio will probably be okay and at least it hasn’t been done to death.  I don’t have much hope for the other two matches, but then they won’t take up that much of the show.